At first blush Cade Cunningham looked to me like the American version of Luka Doncic and the clear favorite to be the first pick in the 2021 draft. Now that he is 16 games into his freshman season with Oklahoma State, the results are in and Cade is no Luka Doncic. During the broadcast of his most recent game (a loss to Kansas in which he recorded one assist and seven turnovers), Fran Fraschilla remarked that he is not ready to anoint Cade as the top pick and general managers he had spoken to expressed the same sentiment. While Frischilla is often a bad take machine, I agree with him on this. Cade Cunningham may well be the best prospect in the 2021 draft, but is it time to at least consider the possibility that he is not.
The case for Cade going #1 is fairly straightforward. He is a young, 6’8″ point forward with top recruit pedigree who currently leads the Big 12 in scoring and boasts strong shooting splits from three point range and the foul line. The Luka comp is off the table, but Cunningham could be the next Jayson Tatum or Paul George, both of whom ranked 7th in my draft model retrodictions and would probably go 1st overall in a re-draft scenario.
| YEAR | RK | PLAYER | POS | DMX | HT | AGE | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV |
| 2021 | 8 | Cade Cunningham | SF | 3.4 | 6’8″ | 19.8 | 21.4 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 4.5 |
| 2017 | 7 | Jayson Tatum | SF | 4.7 | 6’8″ | 19.3 | 20.5 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| 2010 | 7 | Paul George | SF | 3.8 | 6’9″ | 20.2 | 18.6 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 3.3 |
The problem with the Tatum comparison is that Cade doesn’t project nearly as well, at least not as of now. He could catch Paul George with a strong finish to the season, but PG was the 10th pick out of Fresno State and a somewhat unlikely superstar. If you take a closer look at the stats, it is Tatum who looked like the next Paul George while Cunningham falls into a slightly different prototype. Discouragingly, the player Cade reminds me of most is Evan Turner.
| YEAR | RK | PLAYER | POS | DMX | HT | AGE | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV |
| 2021 | 8 | Cade Cunningham | SF | 3.4 | 6’8″ | 19.8 | 21.4 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 4.5 |
| 2010 | 9 | Evan Turner | SG/SF | 3.4 | 6’7″ | 21.7 | 19.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 4.4 |
If this strikes you as a hot take consider that once upon a time Evan Turner was the consensus #2 overall who was seen as a safe pick with star potential. It is unlikely that Cunningham busts as hard as Turner because he is a better shooter and broke out at a younger age, but the parallels in terms of their games and statistics are evident and I could see Cade having similar struggles with the length and athleticism of the NBA.
Cunningham’s biggest statistical red flag is one he shares with Turner: extreme turnover proneness. Turnovers are an interesting metric because it can be a proxy for many things. Some of the most turnover prone prospects in recent history were over-eager young creators like Ja Morant, Trae Young, and John Wall while others like Tony Wroten, Javaris Crittenton, and Turner were simply poor decision-makers. There were also lower usage guys like Anthony Davis and Jimmy Butler for whom turnover avoidance at the NCAA level was an indicator of their future offensive stardom. As a result, turnovers have zero correlation to future success in a vacuum but they do factor into my model. Even if I were to eliminate turnovers completely, Cade Cunningham would still be the fourth rated NCAA player in this draft class behind USC big man Evan Mobley, Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs, and fellow turnover-happy point forward Jalen Johnson of Duke.
Evan Mobley
The #1 prospect according to DMX is Evan Mobley, a highly skilled 7-footer who has played up to his top billing coming out of high school. Mobley has USC in the top-15 in KenPom and his stellar production and efficiency puts him neck and neck with recent first overall picks Karl-Anthony Towns and DeAndre Ayton.
| YEAR | PK | RK | PLAYER | DMX | AGE | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV |
| 2021 | ? | 1 | Evan Mobley | 7.3 | 20.0 | 20.1 | 11.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 2.7 |
| 2018 | 1 | 2 | DeAndre Ayton | 7.3 | 19.9 | 24.4 | 14.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 2015 | 1 | 1 | Karl-Anthony Towns | 7.3 | 19.6 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 2.6 |
In a world where Ayton (and Marvin Bagley) were drafted over Luka Doncic and James Wiseman over LeMelo Ball, it’s easy to imagine Mobley going first overall, and this time it might actually be the right decision.
Jalen Suggs
It could be because he’s a cog on the best college team in years, but the prospect that gives me the warm and fuzzies when I watch him is Jalen Suggs. You may recall that my AAU projections put Suggs as the surprise #2 in the class of 2020 so it is not a huge leap to put him at #1 based on his outstanding freshman season. Suggs seems far more likely to be the next Donovan Mitchell or Victor Oladipo than did last year’s #1 overall pick, Anthony Edwards.
Jalen Johnson
The other, other Jalen of the 2021 draft is the most interesting dichotomy with Cade because they are both 6’8″ point forwards but Johnson bests Cunningham in basically every statistical category.
| PLAYER | POS | DMX | HT | AGE | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV |
| Jalen Johnson | PF | 4.4 | 6’8″ | 19.5 | 20.7 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 4.5 |
| Cade Cunningham | SF | 3.4 | 6’8″ | 19.8 | 21.4 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 4.5 |
However, from what I’ve seen of Johnson he looks more like Royce White or Slo-Mo Anderson than a Ben Simmons-type game changer worthy of top pick consideration.
Hardwood Blues 